The Bay Area Air Quality Management District's board of directors is scheduled to vote Wednesday, Nov. 4, on rewriting the rule that would end sales of most new gas-fired home water heaters.
Under the version the board adopted in 2023, water heaters smaller than 75,001 BTU per hour, the size found in most single-family homes, would have to produce zero nitrogen oxide emissions if they are manufactured after Jan. 1, 2027. Gas furnaces follow in 2029 under a companion rule, and larger water heaters in 2031.
The rule covers new sales and installations, not heaters already in place.
Staff now recommend pushing the water heater date back a year and carving out exemptions. If the board does not act, the 2023 requirements, which include no exemptions for cost or installation problems, stay in effect, according to the staff presentation prepared for the meeting.
What the amendments would do
- New date. The compliance date for typical home water heaters would move to Jan. 1, 2028, to give the district time to set up an exemption process and do outreach.
- Small tanks. Gas heaters under 30 gallons could still be sold, because staff found few zero-emission models in that size.
- Lower-income owners. Property owners in qualifying assistance programs, or earning no more than 80% of area median income, whose mortgage and property taxes take at least 28% of gross income, could keep installing gas units. Staff estimate about 19.8% of Bay Area households would qualify.
- Hard-to-fit homes. One-time exemptions would cover installs where a heat pump unit will not fit, such as spaces under 700 cubic feet that cannot take a louvered door or duct, or where the electrical service is limited, such as a single-family panel rated under 100 amps, a panel with no free breaker slots, older knob-and-tube wiring or a need for more than 50 feet of new 240-volt conduit.
- Later dates for some buildings. Apartment buildings with five or more units, deed-restricted affordable housing, larger units, hydronic systems and certain businesses with heavy hot water demand would get until Jan. 1, 2033.
- Emergencies. A gas heater could go in temporarily when one fails, but it would have to come out within 12 months unless the owner obtains an exemption certificate.
Exemptions would be handled through an online certificate process based largely on the applicant's own attestation rather than a permit, according to the staff report. Staff estimate that up to half of the roughly 120,000 small water heaters replaced in the region each year would qualify.
Costs and comments
Based on more than 4,000 Bay Area installations, the district puts the average installed cost of a heat pump water heater at $7,071, compared with $3,575 to swap one gas unit for another, with $40 to $50 a year in utility savings.
