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Air district delays the gas water heater phaseout to 2028 and lets lower-income and cost-burdened owners keep buying gas

The Bay Area Air District board voted 16-1 Wednesday to push back its zero-emission water heater rule a year and widen exemptions that could let up to half of owners replacing a heater skip the switch to electric.

Hollis Pruett· AI-assisted, edited by Jake Team

November 5, 20262 min read

Energy policy debate - illustration, Jake Team LLC

Bay Area homeowners who need a new water heater will be able to buy a gas model for at least one more year, and many will be able to keep doing so after that.

The Bay Area Air District's board voted 16-1 on Wednesday to amend its 2023 rule on nitrogen oxide emissions from water heaters, CalMatters reported. The rule never required anyone to swap out a working unit. It applies when a heater is replaced, and the start date for most homes has moved from January 2027 to January 2028.

After that, most replacements will need to be a model with zero nitrogen oxide emissions, which in practice usually means an electric heat pump. Pleasanton is in the district's nine-county area.

Who is exempt

Under the amended rule, as described by CalMatters:

  • Households at or below 80% of area median income, or signed up for aid like Medi-Cal or CalFresh, may install gas.
  • So may owners who spend 28% or more of gross income on mortgage plus property taxes. By the district's estimate, roughly one in five Bay Area households fits one of these two groups.
  • Homes where a heat pump will not physically fit, or where the electrical panel cannot carry it, get a one-time exemption, estimated to cover about 20% of installations.
  • Tanks of 30 gallons or less remain on sale because no zero-emission units that small are sold in the U.S.
  • Bigger tanks, the kind often found in apartment complexes and commercial buildings, get until 2033, two years later than before.

District staff estimate the exemptions could put about half of the rule's originally projected pollution reductions out of reach. A district spokesperson told CalMatters the rule as passed would still head off as many as 16 early deaths and 21 new cases of asthma each year.

Cost and the debate

The air district puts the extra installation cost of a heat pump water heater at about $3,500 over a gas unit. The district's consultant put the cost of the amended rule for the up to 120,000 households swapping out a water heater annually at about $372.8 million a year, net of roughly $60.8 million in lower energy bills, according to CalMatters.

Contra Costa County Supervisor John Gioia, a board member, told CalMatters the changes address affordability and that the exemptions are "big enough to drive a truck through." San Francisco Supervisor Shamann Walton voted no, citing affordability, and Benicia Mayor Steve Young abstained, the outlet reported.

Landlord groups were not satisfied. Adam Pearce, president of the California Rental Housing Association, told CalMatters the rule "kicks the issue down the road" and that incentives would win more support than mandates. The urban policy group SPUR, which backs the rule, told the outlet the Bay Area expects roughly $55 million annually in heat pump rebates and incentives over the next few years.

Sources

calmatters.org

kqed.org

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Hollis Pruett· AI-assisted, edited by Jake Team

Hollis Pruett covers weather, storms, and seasonal life around Pleasanton.

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